The focus of investment during this period is inevitable that the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on June 15-16 (results are known in the morning of June 16). in Thai time) because investors around the world are focused on what the outcome of the Fed meeting will be. After most analysts weighed in at 0.75%, up from 0.50% previously expected, as US inflation still signaled a spike.
By “Thai Efinance News Agency”, therefore, gathered the views of analysts in Thailand that assess the case of the Fed raising interest rates this time. How will it affect the stock market?
*** TISCO Securities expects an opportunity to increase 0.75%, up to 90%
Mr. Apichart Phobunjerdkul senior director Strategic Analysis Division TISCO Securities Company Limited revealed to “Thai Efinance News Agency” that for the results of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting (Fed) in this round, it is estimated that most analysts are now more than 90% expected. The Fed will raise the policy rate to 0.75%, which means the market has already responded to the issue in the past two years. If the Fed actually raises interest rates to this level, the market is expected to sideways around 1,580-1,600 points.
While in the case of an interest rate hike of only 0.50%, the SET is expected to rebound up to the level of 1620-1630 because it is better than the market expected. However, in the worst case, the Fed raised interest rates at 1%. Expect the market to be severely shocked and test the support at 1,550 points, but the opportunity is expected to be quite difficult.
| Broker | good | center | badly |
| TISCO Securities | Increase interest by 0.50% | Increase interest by 0.75% | raise interest 1% |
| The market will rebound around 1620-1630 points, which is better than the market expected. | most likely The market will sideways around 1580-1,600 points. | Hard to happen. SET shocks. Test the support line 1,550 points. | |
| Asia Plus Securities | Increase interest by 0.50% | Increase interest by 0.75% | raise interest 1% |
| The SET will rise 1,615-1,616 points in the short-term and medium-term, there are concerns that the Fed will rise 0.75% in the next round. | The SET will go down at 1580-1590 points, the market has already received the news. | Chances are very difficult. | |
| UOB Kay Hian Securities | Increase interest by 0.50% | Increase interest by 0.75% | Raise interest rates by more than 0.75% |
| less chance SET has the least negative response. THAI is worried about accelerating the remaining rounds of the company. |
can happen the most The SET will come down to the support line 1,595-1,540 points. |
difficult to happen The SET will never fall below the level of 1,540 points in the next 1-2 months. |
|
| Kasikorn Securities | Increase interest by 0.50% | Increase interest by 0.75% | Increase interest by 0.75% 5 times in a row |
| SET has a chance to rebound, test 1,666 points | SET stands above support 1,585 points, resistance 1,630 points. | The SET will touch 1,530 points. |
***Asia Plus Securities expects that if it goes up 0.75%, the SET will go down to touch 1,580 points.
Therdsak Thaveetheerathum, Assistant Vice President, Research Division, Asia Plus Securities, said that the Fed is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% or not this round, the next round. In the case of the Fed raising interest rates this round to 0.50%, the SET is expected to bounce in the short term to 1,615-1,616 points because people will return to fear that the Fed may increase 0.75% in the next round.
But if the interest rate is raised 0.75%, the market is expected to decline around 1580-1590 points because the market has mostly reflected. There is a 90% chance, however, that the chances of a 1% interest rate hike by the Fed are very slim. Because the weight is focused on the goal for the rest of the year. Most voters expect US interest rates at the end of this year to reach more than 3.25-3.50%.
*** UOB Securities pointing more or less pressure the market in every way
Kitphol Praipaisalkit, director of analysis and strategist at UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand), said that if the Fed raises interest rates to 0.50% or 0.75%, the Thai stock market will respond negatively as well.
By weighting the interest rate 0.75% this round over 80% and weighting the interest rate 0.50% this time only 20% because people are worried that the Fed will have to accelerate interest rates in the remaining rounds. However, if the Fed raises interest rates more than expected or worst. I believe that in the end, the SET INDEX will not fall below the level of 1,540 points in the next 1-2 months.
***Kasikornbank points out the worst, probably seeing 0.75% up to 5 times in a row
The analysis of KASIKORNBANK states that today’s Fed meeting, the research department assesses 3 cases that will come out:
1. Base case (Base case) if it comes out as expected Estimate that Dollar, Bond Yields will start to settle In the stock market, it will start to rebound in a short period of 1-2%. For the SET Index, the support level will not fall off 1,585 points, while the resistance level may see a rebound to test 1,630 points. Recommended stocks namely, the refinery group (TOP, BCP, ESSO), the food export group (ASIAN, TFG).
2. A good case is that the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates by only 0.50%, estimating that global stock markets and Thai stocks are likely to bounce back. The resistance of the SET is expected to be at 1,666 points, which the recommended investment stock is Financial group, power plant group, growth stock (Growth Stock) such as MTC, CKP, BE8, JMT
3. The worst case is Fed chairman signaled to raise interest rates by himself It signaled a rate hike of 0.75% five times in a row at the Fed meeting during the rest of the year. Ready to speed up to increase the QT limit to reach 100bn, estimate the world stock market will fall, and expect the SET Index to be at 1,530 points
