April 15: Six months ago, the Biden administration seems to have considered the Middle East as a minor player in the world’s geopolitical agenda. The photo shows the remains of a rocket booster that fell in southern Israel. Israeli authorities say a 7-year-old girl was seriously injured. Picture taken on the 14th (2024 Reuters/Christophe van der Perre)
TINOS, GREECE (Reuters Breakingviews) – Six months ago, the Biden administration seemed to regard the Middle East as a minor player in the world’s geopolitical agenda. The US and its allies wanted to focus on fighting Ukraine and preventing China from becoming more powerful.
However, the situation changed completely with the raid of the Islamic group Hamas on Israel in October last year and the humanitarian tragedy that followed in the Palestinian autonomous region of Gaza. Last weekend, Iran launched a retaliatory attack on Israel, highlighting the risk that the entire Middle East region could be drawn into war.
The impact of the fighting in Gaza is not limited to the fact that the democratic camp is no longer able to focus on supporting Ukraine. Support for the United States from poor countries has declined, and in the United States, the possibility of former President Donald Trump’s return has increased. All these developments undermine the “grand strategy” of Western countries.
Failure to achieve geopolitical goals will be a blow to the democratic camp. The “rule of law” that underpins trade and security will further weaken. Countries will be forced to increase their defense spending beyond their plans. In addition, the divisive strategy of Russia and China may cause a rift in the Western alliance. If Russia defeats Ukraine, there is even a possibility that the European Union (EU) will break up.
A war between Israel and Hamas will inevitably distract the West from other priorities. There are limits to what coaches can do. As civilians in Gaza are killed and on the brink of starvation, Western politicians are desperate to stop the conflict from escalating.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels are blocking shipping through the Suez Canal. Last week, the United Nations warned that the conflict between the Lebanese Shiite Islamist group Hezbollah and Israel was worsening.
Ukraine suffers from lack of attention. Despite weapons shortages and recent Russian attacks on energy-related infrastructure, the Biden administration has been unable to get Congress to pass additional aid to Ukraine.
The conflict in Gaza has also exposed the United States and its allies to accusations of “double standards.” These grievances existed long before the Gaza conflict began, and some developing countries have been dissatisfied with the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as issues such as the coronavirus vaccine delivery system, support to climate change countermeasures, and debt issues. .They are angry with Western countries.
The US response to Israel’s attack on Gaza has fueled these frustrations. The United States has vetoed three resolutions on the Gaza conflict in the UN Security Council, and last month abstained from a ceasefire resolution. He also criticized South Africa’s decision to file a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
The United States continues to have a wide variety of commercial, diplomatic, and military relationships with countries around the world. But China and Russia take advantage of America’s double standards and reduce attention to their countries, spreading claims that American hegemony hurts poor countries.
Reuters graphic
The Gaza conflict also casts a shadow over Biden’s re-election bid. Voters who sympathize with the plight of the Palestinians are unlikely to switch to supporting Mr Trump. However, in the Democratic primary, a significant number of voters voted “no supporter,” protesting the Biden administration’s Gaza policy. Some voters may decide not to vote in the general election in November.
The fighting in Israel has put Mr Biden in an unfavorable position. Reducing support for Mr Netanyahu would have cost him support among pro-Israel voters. However, if the fast-growing left wing of the Democratic Party fails, it could cause major damage in an even election campaign.
If Trump is re-elected, the West’s “grand strategy” may be up in the air. The United States, which supports Mr Netanyahu’s hard-line stance, could be at odds with its European allies. Trump is friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin and suspicious of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
If Biden can secure peace, his “grand strategy” will be back on track. But preventing the conflict from escalating further and securing a temporary ceasefire is a major challenge in itself, and is only the first step in a long and difficult process. The longer the conflict in the Middle East drags on, the more complicated the West’s geopolitical goals become.
(The author is a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. This column is written based on the author’s personal opinion.)
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