USMCA Review Negotiations Expected to Extend

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on April 7, 2026, that negotiations regarding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are expected to extend beyond the formal review date of July 1. Greer indicated that the U.S. Expects the review process to result in two separate protocols for Canada and Mexico that will be layered on top of the existing trilateral agreement.

The USMCA, which entered into force on July 1, 2020, governs the flow of goods and services across North American borders. Every day, more than $4 billion worth of goods cross these borders, including Canadian aluminum, Mexican avocados, and U.S. Auto parts. While the three nations are required to approve a renewal of the existing agreement by July 1, 2026, the framework allows for a convoluted renewal process that provides until 2036 to reach a final agreement before the pact expires.

Bilateral Protocols and Core Pillars

During an event in Washington on April 7, 2026, Greer explained that the U.S. Intends to maintain the load-bearing pillars of the USMCA, suggesting that the core of the agreement will remain in place. However, he stated that the U.S. Baseline is that things have to be changed regarding how bilateral issues are handled.

Greer argued that a single trilateral approach is insufficient because the U.S. Maintains different import-export profiles with Canada and Mexico. He noted that the labor situations and the underlying reasons for trade deficits differ between the two countries, which necessitates two separate protocols to address these specific bilateral concerns without dismantling the primary agreement.

Differing Paths for Mexico and Canada

Current reporting indicates that Mexico and Canada are approaching the July 1 review date from different positions. Mexico’s trade team began technical discussions with the Office of the United States Trade Representative in March 2026. These early talks have focused on several key areas, including foreign investment, supply-chain security, and new rules regarding regional content in vehicles.

Canada, by contrast, has been less active in substantive negotiations. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister responsible for U.S. Trade, stated on April 6, 2026, that his team has re-engaged with the Trump administration over the previous month. This re-engagement follows a period of minimal contact after trade talks broke down in October. While LeBlanc expressed confidence that Mexico will not abandon the USMCA in favor of a separate deal with the U.S., substantive talks between Canada and the USTR are not expected to begin until May.

Risks of Collapse and Withdrawal

The prospect of the trilateral pact surviving as a three-country bloc has been a point of contention. U.S. Officials have floated the idea of splitting the USMCA into two separate bilateral agreements in recent months. In December, the top U.S. Trade negotiator told Politico that President Donald Trump would be willing to pull the United States out of the pact entirely if the administration cannot secure the specific deal it wants.

Some observers suggest that the current disparity in how the U.S. Is treating its two partners is a sign that the trilateral agreement is in trouble. Others argue that the U.S. And Mexico are simply addressing thornier bilateral issues early, citing the 2018 negotiations where Washington and Mexico City reached a deal before bringing Canada back to the table.

While the three North American economies could theoretically agree to renew the USMCA as it currently exists for another 16 years, this outcome is considered unlikely given the U.S. Demands for treaty changes.