Wednesday’s Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: Key Market Moves Highlighted by The Globe and Mail

On Wednesday, April 22, 2026, analysts from major Canadian financial institutions released a series of upgrades and downgrades across key sectors, reflecting shifting market outlooks based on recent corporate performance and macroeconomic conditions.

Ventum Financial analyst George Doumet initiated coverage of five consumer staples companies, expressing optimism about the sector’s recovery after a challenging period from 2020 to 2025. He noted that during that time, the group materially underperformed broader indices, returning 26 percent compared to the TSX’s 86 percent and the TSX Staples index’s 94 percent.

Doumet attributed the underperformance to heavy investment in capacity expansion and network optimization, dislocated commodity cycles, labour and supply chain disruptions, and consumer trade-down dynamics. He highlighted elevated margin volatility driven by exposure to commodity spreads, input costs, and tariffs, which caused earnings variability well above traditional staples norms.

For SAP, MFI, and PBH specifically, peak investment coincided with peak input cost volatility, expanding balance sheets and constraining capital returns. Doumet observed that expected earnings acceleration took longer to materialize due to these converging pressures.

However, Doumet now sees a more constructive phase emerging, stating that large-scale investments for SAP, MFI, and PBH are either complete or nearing completion. This development is expected to reduce capital intensity, improve free cash flow, and enable meaningful deleveraging across the group.

He pointed out that historically, share price outperformance in the sector has been driven by stable to improving volumes, leverage trending toward the mid-2-times range, improving return metrics, and capital allocation skewed toward buybacks — conditions he believes are now emerging across much of the consumer staples group.

In a client report titled “The Harvest Ahead,” released before the market open, Doumet initiated coverage of the five companies, citing low valuations alongside improving market conditions. While he expects the group to deliver healthy performance over the next 12 to 18 months, he cautioned that returns are likely to be uneven across the individual names.

National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen focused on Canadian railway companies, stating that CN and CPKC are poised to benefit from better-than-anticipated volumes in their first-quarter 2026 results, particularly due to strong gains in grain shipments.

Doerksen reported that CN’s revenue ton miles (RTMs) increased 3.0 percent year-over-year in Q1, driven by strength in Grain & Fertilizers (up 13.2 percent), Intermodal (up 3.8 percent), and Petroleum & Chemicals (up 7.2 percent). CPKC’s RTMs rose 1.9 percent year-over-year, mainly due to a 12.3 percent increase in grain shipments.

Although Doerksen acknowledged that overall Q1 revenue looks better than prior expectations — especially for CN — he noted that both railroads face headwinds from fuel surcharge lag and a less favourable revenue mix. National Bank Financial made only minor adjustments to its full-year 2026 forecasts for CN and CPKC but increased its price targets for both stocks, citing higher valuation multiples reflective of peer group multiple expansion.

In a client note released Wednesday, Doerksen said he continues to “slightly” favour CPKC over CNR from an investing perspective. He added that while both railways are on track to meet their full-year 2026 guidances issued in January, caution is warranted due to two primary risks.

First, if the recent dramatic increase in fuel prices is sustained beyond a short timeframe, there is a growing risk that broader economic growth slows, potentially affecting rail volumes across North America. Second, with the USMCA renegotiation underway, uncertainty around trade and tariffs will likely remain a headwind for sentiment and valuations for both CN and CPKC until there is greater clarity on any changes to the trade pact.

D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria offered a contrasting view on Shopify Inc., arguing that despite a negative initial market reaction to its third-quarter financial results, the company is extending its lead as the preferred platform provider for global enterprises and direct-to-consumer brands.

Luria stated that Shopify exceeded lofty expectations with recent agentic commerce announcements, which support the bull case that the company is well-positioned to monetize its growing customer base. He noted that while the broader market declined on Tuesday, Shopify’s third-quarter results were strong, with all key growth metrics excluding monthly recurring revenue (MRR) above consensus and total CC revenue growth reaching 30 percent — an outlier in the current macroeconomic environment.

Despite TSX-listed shares of Shopify falling 6.5 percent on Tuesday amid a broader technology sector sell-off, Luria emphasized that the company reported higher revenue, income, and profit for the quarter, along with projected fourth-quarter earnings that exceed analyst expectations for the holiday season.

Shopify posted revenue of US$2.8 billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, representing a 32 percent increase from the prior year and surpassing analyst consensus. Gross profit reached US$1.3 billion, up 24 percent year-over-year, and operating income totaled US$343 million, up 21 percent.

Luria added that total revenue came in at US$2.844 billion, exceeding both his estimate of US$2.741 billion and the consensus forecast of US$2.758 billion. He attributed the stronger-than-expected growth to North American gross merchandise volume (GMV) outperformance relative to internal expectations and increased payments penetration.

Despite the cautious stock reaction, Luria maintained that Shopify’s “growth engine is humming along,” reinforcing his view that the company remains in an advantageous position to capitalize on evolving commerce trends.

TD Cowen Adjusts Rating on Shopify Peer

In related coverage, TD Cowen analyst Menno Hulshof raised his price target on a unspecified company from $81 to $91, maintaining a “buy” rating. He cited the company’s Investor Day as having arguably reset the bull case and created strong incentive for future performance, though the specific name of the firm was not disclosed in the available excerpts.