The German Leopard 2 tanks have arrived in Ukraine, along with other main battle and infantry fighting vehicles. Can the Russian army be repulsed now?
You are here, finally. The 18 German Leopard 2 tanks have arrived in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also presents in a video Challenger 2 main battle tanks, delivered from Great Britain, equipped with large Ukraine flags. “Fantastic machines,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov wrote on Twitter.
As the Russian offensive in the east of the country falters, more and more Western weapons are arriving in Ukraine. First of all, this is good news for the Ukrainian defenders. But what does that mean for the coming months of war? Are the tanks from the west really turning the tide?
That’s exactly what they’re hoping for in Washington, London and Berlin. That’s why the Western alliance is currently heavily arming Ukraine. In addition to the modern main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, combat aircraft, trucks for logistics and a lot of ammunition also came and are coming into the country.
As of spring, the Ukrainian defenders are better equipped than at any time since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression. Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin again has to fear the collapse of his front.
At the same time, the Russian army was able to prepare for this scenario, and Putin’s troops have installed numerous defense lines in the Donbass and in the south. Should a Ukrainian counter-offensive fail, Germany would probably have to ask itself whether the support for Ukraine came too late.
“Battle tanks are not a silver bullet”
The Leopard tanks can be used by Ukraine in the war, and the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the machine has been completed. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) was optimistic on Monday: “As promised, our tanks arrived on time in the hands of our Ukrainian friends. I’m sure they can do something important at the front.”
Military experts, on the other hand, are skeptical as to whether the tanks can become the so-called “game changer” in the war. “Only two dozen Western battle tanks have arrived in Ukraine. That’s not many,” says military expert Christian Mölling in an interview with t-online.
In the best-case scenario, they could help in a Ukrainian offensive at “a few neuralgic points” at the front, but probably not much more. After all, according to the expert: With the Leopard 2 tanks, Ukraine is getting state-of-the-art combat equipment, while Russia is partly working with machines from the Second World War. “In a direct tank duel that would be a clear matter, but the Russian army naturally benefits from the crowd,” Mölling continued. However, the decisive factor is how effectively Ukraine uses the tanks.
Christian Mölling is deputy director of the research institute of the think tank German Society for Foreign Relations and head of the Center for Security and Defense. He studied politics, economics and history at the Universities of Duisburg and Warwick and received his doctorate from the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in Munich.
In total, Ukraine is to receive at least 321 main battle tanks from the West by the second quarter of 2024 – including over 100 Leopard 1 and 31 M1 Abrams from the USA. “Battle tanks are an important element of the offensive, but they are not a silver bullet,” explains Mölling. “Quality and quantity interact strongly in wars.” That means: Above all, there are probably still too few main battle tanks that have arrived in Ukraine to really be able to make a difference.
Ukraine ready for counteroffensive
In addition, Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 are just one building block in a possible counter-offensive by Ukraine. The main battle tanks can tear gaps in the front and force Russian troops to retreat to the nearest defense lines. But to do that, they need to be supported by artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored vehicles that trail infantry—that’s why the military refer to it as “combined arms combat.”
